La Liga • regular-season

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction

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Real Madrid

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Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid Sun 20 Sep, 2026

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Match Recap

Atlético Madrid beats Real Madrid in derby thriller

Atlético Madrid won 2-1 against Real Madrid in a heated derby, with A. Grimaldo's penalty and J. David's goal giving the hosts victory despite a late Real Madrid fightback.

Read the full recap

Match Events

6' D. Simeone (Manager) Atlético Madrid

35' Pubill Atlético Madrid

38' C. Romero Atlético Madrid

46' Pubill → Koke Atlético Madrid

49' Real Madrid D. Dumfries

52' Real Madrid D. Huijsen

53' A. Grimaldo (Pen) Atlético Madrid

54' Real Madrid Vinícius Jr. → Y. Diomande

54' Real Madrid A. Güler → A. Rüdiger

59' J. David (G. Simeone) Atlético Madrid

62' J. David → J. Álvarez Atlético Madrid

67' A. Baena → A. Lookman Atlético Madrid

71' Real Madrid A. Tchouaméni → E. Camavinga

78' Real Madrid J. Bellingham

82' Real Madrid J. Bellingham → B. Silva

89' Real Madrid A. Rüdiger (B. Silva)

89' K. Lee → M. Hjulmand Atlético Madrid

89' C. Romero → R. Le Normand Atlético Madrid

Match Statistics

Atlético Madrid Real Madrid

61% Possession 39%

18 Total Shots 8

9 Shots on Target 3

4 Shots off Target 4

13 Shots Inside Box 3

5 Shots Outside Box 5

4 Big Chances 1

3 Corner Kicks 1

19 Fouls 6

2 Offsides 2

2 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 1

618 Passes 393

556 Accurate Passes 337

90% Pass Accuracy 85.8%

15 Tackles 20

9 Interceptions 6

2 Expected Goals (xG) 0

Shot Map

Atlético Madrid

Real Madrid

Goal Saved Blocked Missed • Circle size = xG

Highlights

Full Match Highlights

Atlético Madrid 2 - 1 Real Madrid — Full Highlights

Lineups Confirmed

Atlético Madrid

4-4-2

Starting XI

13J. Oblak 14M. Llorente 18Pubill 21C. Romero 17D. Hancko 20G. Simeone 10A. Baena 5J. Cardoso 22A. Grimaldo 7K. Lee 15J. David

Substitutes

1J. Musso 24R. Le Normand 30D. Martinez 27J. Domínguez 23M. Hjulmand 6Koke 3O. Vargas 16A. Ortiz 4R. Mendoza 46J. Castillo 19J. Álvarez 11A. Lookman

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

1T. Courtois 24D. Dumfries 16I. Konaté 4D. Huijsen 17M. Cucurella 8F. Valverde 14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler 5J. Bellingham 7Vinícius Jr.10K. Mbappé

Substitutes

13A. Lunin 2R. Asencio 18Á. Carreras 12T. Alexander-Arnold 22A. Rüdiger 27T. Pitarch 6E. Camavinga 21B. Díaz 20B. Silva 9Endrick 19C. Espí 25Y. Diomande

This prediction is generated from recent form, head-to-head history, home advantage, and attacking and defensive strength. It is statistical analysis, not betting advice.

Match Prediction Prediction: BTTS Yes - 63.0%

Atlético Madrid Win32.3%

Draw27.6%

Real Madrid Win40.1%

BTTS: Yes63.0%

Over 2.561.2%

The model leans toward BTTS Yes at 63.0%. Atlético Madrid have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Madrid have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. The numbers also lean toward over 2.5 goals.

Predicted Score1 - 2

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Head to Head Last 5 • See 10 →

Atlético Madrid Wins

Draws

Real Madrid Wins

5 meetings • Goals: 11 - 8

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
20 Sep 2026	W	2 - 1	L	La Liga
22 Mar 2026	L	2 - 3	W	La Liga
27 Sep 2025	W	5 - 2	L	La Liga
12 Mar 2025	W	1 - 0	L	La Liga
04 Mar 2025	L	1 - 2	W	La Liga

Injuries and Suspensions Premium

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