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Prediction incorrect
Match Recap

Luxembourg stun Bulgaria with away win in Nations League

Luxembourg claimed a 1-2 victory away at Bulgaria in UEFA Nations League group stage action, overturning an early deficit to secure three points.

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Match Events
18' A. Chandarov (D. Velkovski) Bulgaria
28' L. Petkov Bulgaria
35' E. Tsenov Bulgaria
37' Luxembourg L. Barreiro
45' Luxembourg T. d. S. Moreira
46' G. Rusev → S. Ivanov Bulgaria
46' Luxembourg D. Sinani → T. Rupil
56' A. Chandarov → M. Minchev Bulgaria
65' Luxembourg V. Thill
68' Z. Dimitrov → M. Petkov Bulgaria
68' E. Tsenov → P. Panayotov Bulgaria
72' Luxembourg V. Thill → M. Olesen
82' T. Ivanov → S. Velkov Bulgaria
83' Luxembourg A. Dardari → J. V. Pereira
83' Luxembourg H. Kadamani → S. Thill
83' Luxembourg D. Carlson
90' Luxembourg T. d. S. Moreira → M. F. Goncalves
Match Statistics
Bulgaria Luxembourg
50% Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 7
3 Shots off Target 4
6 Shots Inside Box 11
4 Shots Outside Box 4
3 Big Chances 3
5 Corner Kicks 4
10 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
414 Passes 420
342 Accurate Passes 347
82.6% Pass Accuracy 82.6%
22 Tackles 11
8 Interceptions 13
1 Expected Goals (xG) 1
Shot Map

Bulgaria

Save — 0.06 xG, 4'Save — 0.02 xG, 11'Goal — 0.55 xG, 18'Save — 0.01 xG, 22'Miss — 0.17 xG, 26'Save — 0.02 xG, 33'Save — 0.04 xG, 51'Miss — 0.23 xG, 57'Save — 0.11 xG, 71'Miss — 0.04 xG, 84'

Luxembourg

Miss — 0.30 xG, 4'Miss — 0.05 xG, 5'Block — 0.05 xG, 9'Block — 0.01 xG, 12'Block — 0.10 xG, 14'Block — 0.08 xG, 23'Goal — 0.27 xG, 37'Miss — 0.07 xG, 43'Save — 0.03 xG, 50'Save — 0.01 xG, 51'Goal — 0.17 xG, 65'Save — 0.02 xG, 65'Save — 0.05 xG, 70'Save — 0.06 xG, 89'Miss — 0.02 xG, 90'
Goal Saved Blocked Missed • Circle size = xG
Highlights

This prediction is generated from recent form, head-to-head history, home advantage, and attacking and defensive strength. It is statistical analysis, not betting advice.

Match Prediction Prediction: Under 2.5 - 56.8%
Bulgaria Win35.1%
Draw30.9%
Luxembourg Win34.0%
BTTS: Yes50.3%
Under 2.556.8%

The model leans toward Under 2.5 at 56.8%. Bulgaria have 1 win in their last 5 matches. Luxembourg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. The numbers also lean toward both teams scoring.

Predicted Score1 - 1
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Head to Head Last 5 • See 10 →
2
Bulgaria Wins
2
Draws
1
Luxembourg Wins
5 meetings • Goals: 4 - 2
Date Home Score Away Competition
06 Oct 2026 W 2 - 0 L UEFA Nations League
26 Sep 2026 L 1 - 2 W UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 W 1 - 0 L UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2024 D 0 - 0 D UEFA Nations League
20 Nov 2022 D 0 - 0 D UEFA Nations League
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